If crisis means paying $1.50 per gallon for gas, we’ll take it. But the word “crisis” is supposed to spark fear into the ears of every American. Until this point, few jobs have been lost in Des Moines and life is just about the same as it was in August. But what do the events of the last two months mean for the average Des Moines 20-something? Here is what Veritas has concluded:
1. Average Joe stops shopping: Private sector spending will decrease.
Though the economic slump has dragged out well over a year, most people have not had to dip into their reserves. The April economic stimulus package provided a temporary boost that many parts of the consumer industry are still feeling. Still, slowing consumption has become evident in much of the American demographic. A recent MSN money article noted that even teenagers’ spending is down 27 percent since spring 2006.
Unfortunately, as people begin to feel the squeeze on their finances, particularly when their investments begin to shrink, they will consume less and save more. Although this provides a sense of security, it will slow the recovery of many consumer-driven industries. Non-essential goods industries have been affected first, as evidenced by the huge losses and layoffs of dot-com giants Netflix and Ebay. Fashion, entertainment, and technology companies could feel it next. Pioneering companies such as Apple could face the need to tighten budgets due to reduced spending on their more innovative but higher-priced products.
2. More money to Uncle Sam: The federal bailout package will result in increased taxes and inflation.
The decreased revenue from large business sectors such as technology and entertainment will have to be compensated for by tax increases, and it is likely that tax hikes will occur long before spending cuts. The unfortunate side-effect is a long-term loss in revenue as businesses decrease capital spending to pay higher tax rates. The federal bailout package will further complicate things by forcing a shrinking tax base to repay an $800 billion loan. Meanwhile, the quick influx of money into the economy has resulted in the weakened purchase power of the dollar. Inflation is a quickly growing problem that will soon be compounded by the bailout.
3. Social Security S.O.S.: Government spending will decrease due to anemic revenue.
As industry profits fall, tax dollars will decrease, forcing the government to reduce public expenditures. Though campaign promises from president-elect Obama detailed an additional $80 billion spending package, the reality is that the federal government cannot sustain current levels of spending for much longer. This will impact average people on another level—cutbacks in federal programs. Federal spending on Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security, and other entitlement programs will have to be slashed as tax revenues fail to sustain current funding. The impact on those receiving entitlements will be twofold: The program benefits could be cut, and the value of the entitlements themselves could decrease drastically if inflation continues.
4. Will work for food: Job markets will tighten; unemployment will rise.
It’s inevitable—when businesses shrink, labor gets cut. There is already huge pressure on the U.S. workforce from our rapid shift toward information technology and away from industry, coupled with immigration issues. Although increased job competition is good for a strong market and rapidly expanding businesses, shrinking industry giants must be more selective in their employment. The U.S. has witnessed a rapid movement toward business conglomerates and global corporations—bad news for young professionals in a weakened economy. Because our society has become tailored to these mega-companies, smaller initiatives and local businesses are less capable of soaking up the excess labor. The result? Unemployment.
5. Wall Street made me do it: Economic hardship will begin to impact behavior and society.
This result has already been noted nationwide. Examples of increased depression, crime, and suicide in connection with finances abound. Much of the crime is centered on insurance fraud as people sink boats and torch their homes in hopes of a payoff. In more extreme cases, victims of financial ruin will take their own lives or the lives of loved ones, as shown by recent high-profile murder/suicides. In one case, a California man left a note specifically citing economic duress as a factor before taking the lives of five family members and then his own. Anxiety and depression over finances can easily break homes; finances are already the leading cause of divorce in America.
In short, the news isn’t good. But don’t worry; the story doesn’t end here. Check back to read our next article: how to brace yourself financially and spiritually for uncertain economic times.